Diamonds in the Rough

By RG On January 28, 2014 · 8 Comments

When the Arizona Diamondbacks pursued Masahiro Tanaka, they displayed their newfound financial flexibility. Now that Matt Garza has been signed, the best free agent starting pitcher left is either Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez. If the rumors that Towers offered Tanaka a $120 million are true, then the D-backs should be able to afford any of the remaining starting pitchers.

The problem is that none of the remaining pitchers are ‘frontline starters’, which is what Tower specifically wants to acquire. Unfortunately, top of the rotation starters are not easy to find. Different starting pitchers have been linked to the D-backs via trade, but a trade would provide an imperfect solution as well. In order to acquire a premier starting pitcher, they would likely have to part with highly-regarded prospects. Even if there’s only a 50% chance that Archie Bradley lives up to his potential and becomes a successful major league pitcher, the ability to control him for at least six more years at a reasonable price makes him more valuable than two years of David Price.

So a trade does not seem to be in the cards either. With bleak trade prospects, and a lack of quality free agents available, there does not seem to be an easy path to obtaining an elite starter. With a projected rotation of Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, and Randall Delgado, the D-backs would be best suited by taking a small, short-term risk on a low-tier starting pitcher.

One reason the Diamondbacks should pursue a lesser talented starter is because they have lost some of their starting pitching depth. With Ian Kennedy and Tyler Skaggs long gone, the next potential starter after Randall Delgado is most likely either Zeke Spruill or Charles Brewer. Andrew Chafin could be a candidate as well, but none of these pitchers are projected to fare particularly well at the major league level in 2014. ZiPS projects an ERA of 4.67 for Chafin were he to pitch in the majors, and an ERA over five for both Spruill and Brewer. Archie Bradley would be unlikely to be called up until at least midseason so that he can continue to work on his control and so that he doesn’t become a free agent a year early. This lack of depth, combined with the injury history of Brandon McCarthy, the struggles of Cahill, and Corbin’s first season after a full workload, is a cause for concern.

Another reason this would make sense is that the Diamondbacks could save their newfound money for 2015. The list of next winter’s free agents looks promising. It could potentially include the following starting pitchers: Max Scherzer, James Shields, Homer Bailey, Hisashi Iwakuma, Justin Masterson, Jon Lester, and Johnny Cueto. It’s possible that some of these pitchers sign extensions before they become free agents, but this is still a pretty impressive list. It could be argued that many, if not all, of these pitchers are better than any of the Diamondbacks’ starters.

Before we delve into the available pitchers, I want to make something clear. The pickings are slim. The goal is to find the next Scott Kazmir. In case you’re unfamiliar, Kazmir was a promising left-hander on the Rays before injuries set him back. He was great starting when he broke onto the scene in 2004 until 2009. He had a dismal 2010 (WAR of -1.1), and then only pitched 1.2 innings in MLB between 2011 in 2012. Well in 2013 he pitched 158 innings for the Indians and was worth 2.5 wins.
Okay, so who fits the profile of ‘risky pitcher willing to take a short-term deal’? There are a few options:

Johan Santana
This is not the same Johan Santana that signed a 6-year, $137 million contract. He also probably won’t be ready until some point in the summer, but that might be perfect timing for the D-backs. McCarthy generally gets hurt in May and misses time in the summer. It’s not ridiculous to foresee the rotation keeping it together until the summer and then getting a boost from the former ace. Describing how good he was in his prime would not be indicative of his future performance, but even after major shoulder surgery and other issues he was effective in 2012. He was worth 1.4 wins in only 117 innings, and was still striking out almost a batter per inning.

Tommy Hanson
Just a few years ago, Hanson was one of the top prospects in baseball. Hanson has not exactly lived up the billing, but he has put together a few effective seasons. He was worth 4.2 wins in 2010, and was striking out more than a batter per inning in 2011 before getting hurt. He has lost velocity on his fastball, but he was never a hard thrower. If his off-speed offerings still have bite, he could be a contributor.

Jason Hammel
Hammel is familiar with the NL West, averaging almost three wins above replacement with the Rockies from 2009—2011. He had a disappointing 2013, but he was on a one year deal for $6.8 million. His performance certainly did not help his prospects; he could be available at a steep discount.

Jason Hammel is by no means the frontline starter that Kevin Towers is looking for—neither is Santana nor Hanson. But they would allow the D-backs to have a sixth starter and depth. Having Randall Delgado as the sixth starter instead of someone else might be worth a win or two during the course of a season.
Sometimes, that’s all it takes to make the playoffs.

8 Responses to Diamonds in the Rough

Bradford says:

January 28, 2014 at 8:37 am

Neither Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana are a significant improvement for the contract, even if they do provide rotation depth. Couple that with their cost of a draft pick, and KT should fully turn his attentions elsewhere.
Of the three you listed, I like Johan Santana and Hanson the best. Santana is the best known quantity; you know when he’s healthy that he will be effective. Hanson has alarming declining stats, but his inconsistency largely mirrors Hammels’ in a smaller sample size. He is not too far removed from success, and his off speed stuff probably plays a little better than Hammels’ power in our ballpark. Hammels I feel would be identical to Delgado in their HR/9 and bring more walks, as he struggles to find the zone and has meltdown starts more often than you like.
KT should at least go after Santana, with Hanson as a strong secondary. Let Hanson fight it out with McCarthy and Delgado for spots 4 and 5, let Santana recover and take over for the lowest performer when he’s ready. Bring up Bradley the day after the All-Star break, and you have the cobblings of a legitimate rotation.

Reply
Bradford says:

January 28, 2014 at 8:39 am

I hate to use him as a magic wand that will suddenly wash away all of our pitching woes, but Dave Duncan has made a prolific living on taking guys with junk stuff like Hanson and Delgado and turning them into solid number 3 starters. I feel like if KT went out and made a strong push for Hanson, his chances as a bounce back candidate would skyrocket under Duncan’s tutelage.

Reply
Paulnh says:

January 28, 2014 at 11:43 am

I was actually thinking about Johan Santana yesterday and how we should sign him. I read that he probably won’t be ready until June, but his upside is there. He could fill in for McCarthy when he gets hurt and if he does well, he could stay in the rotation. I personally see him making some starts when we have some guys on the DL, but spending most of his time being our second lefty in the pen. He obviously won’t be his old Cy Young self, but he could be a terrific pitcher again. I’d try to sign him to a one year deal with one million guaranteed and about three million in incentives. Then I’d try to add on a team option for a second year for around five million with a one million dollar buyout. I think he is definitely worth a shot. He could be the next Francisco Liriano.

Reply
Adam says:

January 28, 2014 at 8:42 pm

If a Kazmir is what you’re going for, and you’re okay with an injury risk for what it could bring in the future (Archie), take a flier on A.J. Burnett or Erik Bedard.

If stability is your goal, Arroyo will command a bit of money and probably a two-year deal, but enjoy your free 200 innings and 3.80 ERA.

Reply
- Jeff Wiser says:
  
  January 28, 2014 at 8:50 pm
  
  Exactly Adam! I feel like these guys fall into similar buckets: quality of impact or quantity of innings. The D-backs have the innings thing covered for the most part, it’s the quality that provides an opportunity for upgrade.
  
  Reply
  - Ryan P. Morrison says:
    
    January 28, 2014 at 9:27 pm
    
    Yeah. Teams like the D-backs can’t get quality and quantity in the same player in the open market. At least, not reliably so.
    
    So I agree that Arroyo probably doesn’t have a role to play in Arizona.
    
    As for the other guys… I think Bedard is officially done, unless he wants to try relief. Burnett would be perfect, if the D-backs can get him. One year, little risk, and quality in spades… with his new repertoire, he was an ace (top 15) pitcher in 2013, any way you slice it.
    
    My two cents: offer Burnett $20M on a one year deal. Worth it.
    
    Reply
    - Adam says:
      
      January 28, 2014 at 10:41 pm
      
      $20 million for one year of Ol’ A.J. might be a bit extreme, especially if that’s free money and not from an incentive-laden deal.
      
      Shoot from the hip at high-single digit millions with performance bonuses pushing him into the low-to-mid-teens. He’s pushed 190+ innings the last several years, so those type of bonuses virtually guarantee him the money but insure the D-Backs against the chance that his body responds to stress like a guy in his late thirties. If he is the 2.5-3.0 win pitcher that the projections suggest, 12-14 million should be right in line with his production.
      
      Reply
      - Ryan P. Morrison says:
        
        January 29, 2014 at 8:46 am
        
        Burnett just pitched his best season while making $16.5M in 2013. More importantly, he was clearly very serious about the retirement possibility, which leads me to doubt he’d simply take the best contract offered.
        
        I feel a high level of confidence that more than one team will be willing to offer him more than $17M, and my guess is that someone will end up paying him more than $20M. Unless it’s Pittsburgh — until yesterday, we thought we knew he was choosing between that club and retirement, so he might take a discount. And for all we know, he’s only saying he’d pitch for other teams to keep Pittsburgh honest with their offer.
        
        Add to those considerations that Arizona hasn’t necessarily had much success in attracting free agents. It might be that they have to offer him a salary a step above other offers.
        
        I’m very comfortable with the suggestion that the D-backs offer Burnett a $20M salary. It’s one year, low risk, and last year he was easily in the top 15 (an ace) by most metrics that matter. It might be that that’s what aces earn from now on, anyway.