Roundup: Some Bold Predictions for the 2014 D-backs

It’s finally here: opening day for the D-backs in Arizona. Remember: just 80 regular season games at Chase this season, so each one is all the more precious! I normally include some small analysis tidbits in this roundup space that don’t warrant their own posts, but today, I offer a bit of a departure: some of my own predictions for the 2014 season.

Do I think all of these will come true? Not exactly. At times, these predictions are just me saying I think these outcomes are much more likely than others believe. Still, I will hold myself accountable for them in October.

Gerardo Parra will, with the help of his new swing, hit for a .290 batting average, besting his .268 mark from last season. Rather than creating runs at a clip slightly below the average hitter (96 wRC+), he’ll create runs at a slightly above average rate (105 wRC+). And while his defense will still be good enough to make him a candidate for a Platinum Glove, it will slip somewhat, leaving Parra to put up a similar WAR to last season (4.5).

The Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo combination will put up less than 60 HR in 2014. I’m expecting a slight decrease from Goldy, but I think there will be a stretch in which Trumbo overthinks things, and he falls off track for a month or two. I’m not hedging when I say this, but ask yourself, which do you think is more likely: more than 70 HR combined, or less than 60 HR?

Mark Trumbo will play left field reasonably well, inspiring hundreds of fan “I told you sos.” He will get a positive rating from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. This is not the same as saying Trumbo will be an asset defensively — it just means he’ll be above average. I’ve changed my tune on this within the last few weeks.

Adam Eaton will have a higher 2014 WAR than Mark Trumbo, though. Eaton is getting a full shot to hit leadoff every day, and a guy with his speed who can put up on base percentages around .380 are very, very helpful, but very hard to find. In three different minor league seasons, Eaton put up OBPs above .450. I think he gets there, which makes him quite a bit more valuable than Trumbo.

Tyler Skaggs will win more games than all but two of the D-backs starters. I hate to be Eeyore, but I’m pretty confident about this. All it took for Skaggs was some mechanical adjustments, and it appears he’s made them. The two D-backs starters that will best Skaggs in the win column, I think, will be Wade Miley, and this next guy…

Brandon McCarthy will win 14 games and pitch 150+ innings. Will he be an ace starter? I think probably not. But with a new level of confidence and ditching his fringy changeup, McCarthy will dare players to hit it to the above-average D-backs defense, with good results.

J.J. Putz will have a lower ERA and FIP than Addison Reed, with fewer blown saves, pitching fewer innings than Reed. I think Reed will be good, but I think Putz is motivated to be excellent. Heading into free agency at the end of the season, he’s got every reason to use his full repertoire — there’s just a huge price difference on the free agent market.

And some grab bag predictions: Martin Prado will have his best offensive season since 2008 (per wRC+). Chris Owings will be hitting over .280 by the end of May, but under .260 at the end of the season. Cody Ross will play more than 100 games, but less than 80 starts, making more of a defensive contribution than an offensive one, but still being an above-average hitter.

What do you all think? As for how well the team will do overall… I’m optimistic, but I’m finding it hard to be objective.

On to the links:

• ESPN just released its first Power Rankings of the 2014 season, and they’ve dropped the D-backs from 16th (where they closed 2013) to 19th. Behind the Brewers. Take a look for yourself…
• In a piece on the state of the Diamondbacks, Nick Piecoro writes: “Even before Corbin went down, the Diamondbacks looked like a team that would need a lot of things to go their way if they were going to overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. That’s especially true now, particularly as it relates to players coming off down years.” Couldn’t agree more. The D-backs don’t have too many lottery tickets this year — guys who could step forward like Corbin did last season. Not to sound like a broken record, but Eaton and Skaggs were both guys in that category. So now it’s mostly a question of bounce backs, as Piecoro wrote, and Chris Owings, and Archie Bradley.
• I agree with Jim McLennan, writing about the last roster spots filled: Ryan Rowland-Smith is almost definitely the guy who gets taken off the 25-man once Cody Ross is ready to join the team. I like the move to include him, in light of the terrible David Hernandez news. Also check out McLennan’s post on the D-backs’ probable record, complete with poll.
• At Venom Strikes, Thomas Lynch posted predictions of his own. Agree on Miley and McCarthy. Agree the defense will be strong, and above average, but I think it will be a cut below last season. But I do think the bullpen will be about the same performance wise (although Oliver Perez will be an improvement over Heath Bell), that the organization’s pitching depth is already being stretched a bit, and that the offense won’t necessarily be better than last season (my main wild card for that is Cody Ross). Good work from Lynch.
• Also at Venom Strikes, Joseph Jacquez has an interesting idea: platoon Brad Ziegler and Addison Reed in the ninth, depending on hitter tendencies. I like the idea, which is definitely inventive; it’s just that to do that, both pitchers would need to be available for the ninth (otherwise it’s really a platoon for the seventh or eighth, which is when you’d have to pick). I’m also not sure how you would deploy them. You wouldn’t want to counter hitter tendencies, I think; instead, you’d want fly ball hitters hitting against Reed, and ground ball hitters facing Ziegler. Why? Because we’d want the hitter to miss more, instead of missing the opposite way (vertically) and hitting more line drives. And there’s also this: Ziegler provides as much as half a win of value by being particularly efficient at double play situations (just for the times when he’s put in mid inning!!). The extra benefit of a late-inning platoon would have to outweigh that benefit.
• Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw has hit the DL. I’m not there, but I can only imagine Australia-related hand wringing. And while anything that weakens the Dodgers is probably good for the D-backs, the delay to Kershaw’s North American season might line him up to face the D-backs twice this month. Not so good.
• The FanGraphs folks did their predictions for season, and with respect to the NL, zero of the 31 writers had Arizona winning the division. Just 2 had them winning a wild card. As I said above, I’m feeling a little more optimistic than that would suggest, but it’s hard to be objective on that one thing. FG also had Paul Goldschmidt as one of the favorites for the MVP (4 votes, tied for second), and Chris Owings picked up some Rookie of the Year votes.
• Finally… this is very off topic, but a 14-year old has figured out that the United States government could save more than $400 million a year on ink just by switching from Times New Roman as a default font to Garamond. That’s incredible, and it makes sense. And it reminds me so much of baseball analysis: despite so many people looking at the same thing, one person can break through with an idea that changes the game. Standing ovation for young Suvir Mirchandani. Just excellent.