2014 D-backs Minor League Preview
Opening Day is always exciting at Chase Field, but the Diamondbacks aren’t the only team we care about that’s getting their season underway. Minor league affiliates across America are kicking off their seasons and since their rosters are comprised of the big leaguers of the future, they deserve some attention. As you’ve likely noticed, we like to keep track of the Diamondbacks in the minors around here, so let’s take a look at the Opening Day rosters of Arizona’s four full season minor league affiliates, the South Bend Silver Hawks (A), the Visalia Rawhide (A+), the Mobile BayBears(AA) and the Reno Aces (AAA).
*As a primer, make sure you’ve read our top prospect rankings that were released last fall: 1-10, 11-20, 21-30
Below you’ll find a graphic containing each roster, but let me give you a quick “viewer’s guide” to analyzing them. There are several things to look for that those unfamiliar should keep an eye on. They include, but are not limited to:
- The following ages are desirable at each level, with a preference towards the low end of the age range:
- A: 19-21
- A+: 20-22
- AA: 21-23
- AAA: 22-24
- Players that are assigned to a higher level than they played in 2013
- Keep the number of games played at each level under consideration
- Some players made brief appearances at the end of 2013 and are reassigned to that level to start 2014
- Keep the number of games played at each level under consideration
- Catchers move along more slowly than other players
- Up-the-middle defenders (SS/CF) are considered most valuable
- Anyone 25 and older is generally considered a non-prospect
- Doesn’t mean they can’t contribute, just aren’t really on the radar
With these very broad generalizations in mind, let’s take a look at the various Diamondbacks minor league rosters.
Top Prospects
Braden Shipley, SP: the top prospect on the team, righty Braden Shipley, will begin the year on the DL after tweaking his shoulder, although reports suggest that it’s simply precautionary. The team’s number one pick in the 2013 draft was showing strong stuff, including his advanced changeup, this spring, impressing scouts such as ESPN’s Keith Law. He’ll open the year in South Bend, but has a chance to climb as high as AA Mobile before the season’s over.
Aaron Blair, SP: Blair is practically attached to Shipley’s hip as the two were drafted highly in the same draft and as advanced college pitchers, should climb the ladder at a similar rate. They were promoted together last fall and like Shipley, I’d fully expect Blair to see at least High-A Visalia, if not AA Mobile before concluding 2014. Blair throws a heavy sinker that should generate a lot of ground ball outs as he matures.
Stryker Trahan, OF: as you’ll likely recall, Trahan was recently moved to the outfield. He’ll get his first taste of it in South Bend, which could be cumbersome at first. The idea is that getting him out from behind the plate will take the pressure of his bat, so we’ll all be watching for things to click at the dish. The former first rounder needs to have a productive season or he’s in jeopardy of falling out of top prospect status.
Joe Munoz, SS/3B: Munoz is a physically mature shortstop who is likely to shift to third long-term, and perhaps that transition begins in 2014. He’s shown a reasonable approach at the plate and has some pop, but he’s still relatively raw. The toolsy prospect will look to continue to grow in his first full season in pro baseball.
Jamie Westbrook, 2B: I’ve been all over this kid since I saw him in the Arizona Rookie League last fall. The Diamondbacks seem to like scrappy, all-out players (purposeful avoidance of “gritty”) and Westbrook fits that mold. But don’t think he’s without tools, rather he maximizes them with a tremendous work ethic and passion for the game. He’s short but thick and has good gap power at present and above average speed. Full season ball at 19 will be quite a test, but I think he’s up for it.
Others to Watch
Michael Perez had a rough 2013 as he was originally assigned to High-A Visalia, skipping Single-A South Bend altogether. He scuffled mightily and was sent down to South Bend midway through the year, where he picked things up but still struggled somewhat at the plate. This is a big, big year for him. Daniel Gibson is a talented lefty reliever who could move quickly and should see High-A Visalia before the year’s over. Andrew Velazquez is another young middle infielder who plays solid defense at short and can hit a little bit, although he’s shown little power to date. Daniel Palka is a first base prospect who can hit the baseball for both average and power. He wasn’t tested much in Low-A Hillsboro last year, and he could see a promotion to High-A Visalia in 2014. Gerardo’s little brother, Geordy Parra is a very productive relief prospect who has shown strong strikeout rates thus far in his pro career while Felipe Perez will look to build on a successful, although perhaps not overwhelming, pro debut last season in Missoula after the D-backs surprisingly pulled him away from UCLA when he decided to walk away from a scholarship.
Needless to say, this a talented roster that should be very, very competitive in the first half of the season. At that point, one would expect that a handful of promotions depletes the roster somewhat. Surprisingly, outfielder Justin Williams, the team’s 2nd-round draft pick last year, didn’t join Westbrook on the South Bend roster. With that said, he’ll likely see South Bend at some point in 2014 after he was very effective in rookie ball last season and he’ll be just 18 this season, so the team may opt to be patient with the young prospect.
Top Prospects
Brandon Drury, 3B: one of the organization’s top prospects, Drury was acquired as part of the Justin Upton trade from the Atlanta Braves. Drury hit a boatload of doubles in South Bend last year and the power should translate into more home runs in 2014. The Oregon native will also benefit from playing in the hitter-friendly California league, so watch for a pronounced spike in power numbers. He received a good number of spring training at-bats and appears to be one of the organizations most coveted young men.
Jimmie Sherfy, RP: Sherfy was electric for the University of Oregon and demolished Hillsboro and South Bend hitters in 2013 after being drafted in the 10th round. He’s an advanced righty who should move quickly and will likely start the year as Visalia’s closer. Mr. Sherfy has plenty of swing-and-miss stuff thanks to a funky delivery and should see time in AA before the season’s over.
Others to Watch
Socrates Brito and Alex Glenn are an intriguing pair in the outfield. Brito is 6’2″, 200-pounds and has shown both speed and some power while Glenn is 5’10”, 180-pounds but has more pop. In a system largely devoid of impact outfielders at the more advanced levels, these two are worth watching. First baseman Rudy Flores has a ton of power but strikes out regularly. He has a chance to hit 30 homers in Visalia but also strike out 30% of the time. Lefty reliever Henry Garcia has been absolutely fantastic since being signed out of independent ball in 2012.
Top Prospects
Jake Lamb, 3B: it’s largely assumed that Lamb made Matt Davidson expendable and the solid third baseman continued to hit with every chance he was given in 2013, including in the Arizona Fall League. He lacks the prototypical tools to be considered a top-flight prospect, yet continues to produce. AA will be a challenge, but if he holds his own, he could see Reno before the year is out.
Jake Barrett, RP: considered the team’s top relief prospect, the closer in the making will face his second go ’round of AA after he logged over 24 innings there in 2013. I’m unsure what the organization wants to see from him as he mowed down AA hitters last year. This could be a function of the AAA roster being clogged.
Matt Stites, RP: Stites is in the exact same boat as Barrett and the two are neck-and-neck for top reliever status. Like Barrett, Stites was excellent in Mobile last year and will do it again in 2014 until he’s needed elsewhere.
Andrew Chafin, SP: Chafin may continue as a starting pitcher although there’s been talk for two years now of him moving to the bullpen. It’s unclear if he’ll remain a starter, but my guess is that he gets another chance in the Mobile rotation but ultimately ends up in the Diamondbacks’ bullpen. His mound presence and tenacity seem well-suited for a high leverage role and a conversation may just be a matter of time.
Others to Watch
Patrick Schuster was recently returned to the Diamondbacks after being selected in as the first pick in the Rule 5 draft by the Astos. His rights were then traded to the Padres, who tried to pass him through waivers where he was claimed by the Royals, then ultimately offered back to Arizona, so he’s got a nice little hat collection going on. The lefty reliever is very talented and may be quick to see more advanced action. Gerson Montilla is an interesting second baseman has he posted big numbers in Visalia in 2013, but one has to wonder how much the California League helped him. We should have a go idea midway through 2014.
Top Prospects
Archie Bradley, SP: Bradley is the top prospect in the system and one of baseball’s best young talents. He nearly made the Opening Day roster but scuffled in late spring, including a drubbing Australia. As has been his bugaboo from time to time, his command betrayed him in late spring and while his raw stuff is absolutely filthy, he has yet to fully hone it. AAA is a great place for him to do so as Reno is tough place to pitch and he’ll be facing advance hitting every fifth day. Don’t be shocked if it takes him a little while to prove he’s major league ready.
Nick Ahmed, SS: Ahmed has the defensive chops to be a major league starter right now, but the bat is far behind. He’s currently in the mold of a Cliff Pennington-type with remarkable skills in the field but no pop and an iffy hit tool at the plate. If Ahmed can grow with the bat, even just a little, he could prove to be a very useful major leaguer. If not, he’ll likely still have a long career as a defensive backup.
Ender Inciarte, OF: Inciarte has speed to burn in centerfield and has shown an ability to hit for average. He keeps his strikeouts down, making a ton of contact, and walks a fair amount, too. While he’s not likely to develop into an impact big leaguer, he could eventually be a fourth outfielder for the Diamondbacks as a guy similar to Tony Campana with slightly less speed but a little more hitting ability.
Others to Watch
Didi Gregorius was optioned to AAA when he lost the starting shortstop job to Chris Owings and wasn’t traded before Opening Day. He needs to hit in Reno in order for the Diamondbacks to get something useful in return in a future trade. Officially moving to the bullpen, Zeke Spruill will look to resurrect his prospect status while hoping his stuff plays up in shorter stints. Conversely, Bo Schultz nearly made the Opening Day roster as a reliever, but will stretch out and become a starter for Reno due to the lack of starting depth for Arizona. Kevin Munson was selected by the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft but was recently returned. He’ll join the Aces’ relief corps and could see major league time in 2o14.
In Conclusion
There’s plenty to be excited about in the minor league depths for Arizona. The full season squads above have several exciting prospects and are peppered with other players who may just take a big step forward in 2014. After the draft, we’ll take a look at the short season squads. There’s always a breakout performance or two, so stick with Inside the ‘Zona as we’ll be monitoring the minors all year long.
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