2015 Diamondbacks Top 30 Prospects: Primer

It’s that time of year again: we’re all about to get inundated with lists. Top Free Agents. Top Prospects. Top Winter Vacation Destinations. You name it, it’ll get listed. And while the whole list/ranking thing can easily get overblown, I’m going to wade in here with the Inside the ‘Zona Top 30 Diamondbacks Prospects, starting tomorrow. I’m excited about it and I hope you are too.

This list isn’t the be-all, end-all of Diamondback prospects, and I want to make that clear. There are guys who are clearly better than one another, but there are a lot of guys who are tough to differentiate. At times, it’s a judgement call. Other times, it’s a result of scouts and sources that I’ve spoken with who have a feeling about one guy over another. I’ve read the reports, I talked to people in the game who have a better scouting acumen than most and tried to put it all together. This was thoughtful, deliberate and really hard to do. So before griping about a guy being 18th when you think he should be 16th, just remember, the gaps, especially in the bottom half of the list are just not that big. Also, keep in mind that this list represents a snapshot of the system tomorrow. It’s fluid and it will change. Some guys will continue to grow, some will flame out, etc. No one has a crystal ball, not even you or I (trust me, I’m bitter about it, too!).

This year’s list will be laid out a bit differently than the 2013 version. I’ll still release rankings in batches of ten, but I’m going to include some additional information. Take a look at a sample below, and then we’ll discuss.

Stryker Trahan

• Age: 20
• Position: C/OF
• Acquired: 1st Round (26th overall), 2012 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Single-A South Bend (95 games), Short Season Hillsboro (30 games)
• 2013 Ranking: 15th
• Volatility: Extreme
• Trending: Down

I want to draw your attention to a couple of things in this format. First, keep age in mind as it matters greatly when it comes to prospects as their development time is directly tied to how old a player is. Also, age as it relates to level is important. A 24-year old in AAA is fine, but a 24-year old in High-A is not. The spot where a player was acquired tells us how he was valued as an amateur and gives us insight into what scouts thought the player could be. Some guys break this mold but most do not and it’s another piece of useful information. The volatility ranking conveys the range of likely outcomes for the player. Some guys are likely to be major league contributors in a certain role (Jake Barrett) while others have a wide swath of potential outcomes (Marcus Wilson). I think it’s important to acknowledge that some players, especially young, toolsy ones, could be stars or could never make it Double-A. The trend category should give you a feel for how the player has progressed through 2014 and what his prospect stock is doing at the moment.

Let’s practice with three guys, among many and in no particular order, who just missed the cut for the Top 30.

Stryker Trahan

• Age: 20.5
• Position: C/OF
• Acquired: 1st Round (26th overall), 2012 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Single-A South Bend (95 games), Short Season Hillsboro (30 games)
• 2013 Ranking: 15th
• Volatility: Extreme
• Trending: Down

Thank you, copy/paste function! Trahan was disappointing yet again in 2014. He was moved off of catcher to focus on hitting and learn to play left field. Well, that didin’t work as his strikeout rates were still astronomical in full-season ball and he struggled to make contact. Without contact, the power isn’t worth a lot. You’ll still see Trahan on a bunch of Diamondbacks top prospect lists, but until he takes a step forward, you won’t see him on mine. He’s young enough to work his way back into the big picture, and maybe I’m being hasty, but there are other guys that I think are more deserving as Trahan has shown no feel for hitting in three minor league seasons and doesn’t have a defensive position.

Luis Madero

• Age: 17.5
• Position: RHP
• Acquired:
• 2014 Level(s): Rookie – DSL (13 games started)
• 2013 Ranking: n/a
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

In his first professional season, Madero posted excellent numbers, including solid peripherals. He’s pitched just 66.2 professional innings, but it was an excellent debut for the 17-year old. He controlled the zone extremely well and was equally tough to hit, surrendering just 46 hits. At 6’3 and 175-pounds, he’s got room to add strength and velocity. The only knock on Madero at the moment is that he’s more polish than stuff right now. DSL hitters don’t see many pitchers who have a feel for pitching and Madero has that. His velocity, however, was reportedly only in the mid to high 80’s when signed. He’ll add to that as he grows and benefits from professional coaching and could rise quickly if the stuff takes a leap forward.

Michael Perez

• Age: 22.2
• Position: C
• Acquired: 5th Round (154th overall) 2011 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Single-A South Bend (98 games)
• 2013 Ranking: 21st
• Volatility: High
• Trending: Steady

In a system thin on catching, the Diamondbacks could really benefit from Perez taking his game up a notch or two, but it just hasn’t materialized. He played his age-21 season in South Bend where he was repeating the level. He did a great job of getting on base and balancing his K:BB ratio, but still didn’t hit for average. Perez did display some power, however, and should have the chops to stick at catcher. He’ll get another crack at High-A in 2015 and could take off this time around. As a catcher, the organization will be patient with him and I think there’s still a chance he can work his way into a big league job as a backup catcher or potentially a second division starter, but that’s a long ways off. He needs to do some damage in Visalia first.

Hopefully that provides you a taste of what’s to come, starting tomorrow and ending next week. As always, I value the feedback and look forward to your questions and thoughts. We’ll be discussing this on the The Pool Shot in the coming days, so there’s lots of prospect talk and coverage to get you started in this offseason before we begin building our Offseason Plan and shifting gears back to the majors full time. Now, get ready for prospects 21-30 tomorrow!