So Towers Wants an Ace, Huh?

By now, you’ve likely read or heard Kevin Towers’ comments regarding what’s on the Diamondbacks’ shopping list. If you’ve been reading Inside The Zona, you’re probably well aware of what those purported needs are, as we’ve been covering them for a couple of months. In short, Towers feels that the team needs a clear-cut leader of the pitching staff to go along with the present depth. Ryan and I agree with this assessment, at least in principle. Additionally, Towers says that the team is still searching for a power corner outfield bat, which I weighed in on a while back, and it should come as no surprise that the names Trumbo and Cespedes came up in rumors yesterday. But I’ll leave that alone for now as I want to focus on these notions that Arizona needs an ace for the rotation.

First we have to define the word “ace.” It’s been thoroughly abused in recent years as the definition of the term has expanded tremendously from what it once meant. Randy Johnson was the team’s ace from 2000-2002 as he collected three Cy-Youngs in as many years. Keep him in mind when you remember that heading into 2013, many writers and fans (somewhat loosely) referred to Ian Kennedy as the team’s ace and leader of the rotation. I can think of no better example to paint the picture of this word’s distortion, as we know how the tale of Ian Kennedy ends. And I think  it’s important to acknowledge that just because a pitcher is a team’s Opening Day starter does not necessarily mean he’s an ace. Some teams have more than one (Tigers), most teams have zero (way too many to list). Aces should have the following attributes in one form or another:

• Durability/Dependability: to be a true ace, the team needs to be able to count on 200 innings or more year in and year out. The team has to be able to count on this guy every fifth day to deliver consistently favorable results.
• Dominant Stuff: there’s no more sure out in the game than the almighty K and when you close your eyes and think of aces, I’m guessing most of them weren’t soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact guys.
• Leadership (#rig): I’m a Jason Parks apologist and if you don’t know #rig, you should start reading him, but that aside, any true ace has to have the “it” factor. This the guy that just takes the mound and absolutely owns it. A sign of this is when opposing teams’ best hitters get a “random off day” when this pitcher takes the mound.
• Favorable Playoff Experience (preferred, not required): no one’s going to argue that King Felix isn’t an ace just because the Mariners haven’t made the post season during his tenure, but a strong postseason track record is surely a plus.

With these attributes in mind, let’s take a look at some of the potential “ace” options that Arizona has this offseason, some inside the box and some outside of it.

David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

• Ace status: definitely an ace
• Age: 28
• Years of team control: two
• Available via: trade
• Cost: you won’t like it. Archie Bradley is only the start of the conversation. It would likely be a clean sweep of valuable minor league pieces, way more than a mid-market team should give up. On top of that, he’ll cost nearly $25 million over the next two years in arbitration salaries before becoming a free agent.
• Thoughts: Price is the best pitcher available. He been very durable over the years, although he missed some time in 2013 and one wonders if the innings are wearing on him. The stuff is excellent, he has the dominance to be the clear leader of the rotation and has some quality postseason experience. These types of pitchers aren’t available very often.
• Likelihood of acquisition: not at all likely. He’s way too expensive for the Diamondbacks’ taste in trade demands alone. If they were to acquire him, they’d have to do some serious budget stretching only to watch him change uniforms in two years as he’ll command a free agent salary that Arizona almost surely can’t compete with.

Max Scherzer, RHP, Tigers

• Ace status: definitely an ace
• Age: 29
• Years of team control: one
• Available via: trade
• Cost: nearly as much as what Price would command, including Archie Bradley. There’s no quantity in the Diamondbacks’ minor league system that can replace the quality that Bradley represents. I took on this possibility a few weeks ago and proposed Bradley, Chris Owings and pieces to Detroit in return for Max.
• Thoughts: Scherzer looked like a definite possibility before the Tigers freed up an amount of cash equal to the payroll of the Miami Marlins when they pushed away Prince Fielder. The thought with that move was that Detroit can now afford to extend Scherzer and while that extension hasn’t happened yet, it almost surely will. He has the all the pedigree that Price does so he’d be a organization-changing player in Arizona.
• Likelihood of acquisition: not at all likely. It appeared to have potential before the trade that nearly crashed my twitter but now seems like an almost impossibility. I actually thought this one had a chance but it was not to be. Even if it had, Arizona would have found it challenging to keep Scherzer beyond 2014 given his potential free agent demands.

Jeff Samardzija, Cubs, RHP

• Ace status: usually not an ace
• Age: 29
• Years of team control: two
• Available via: trade
• Thoughts: ugh, I feel like I’ve beaten this one to death already and if you follow me on twitter, you might agree. Samardzija is a very good pitcher who can pitch like an ace 20% of the time, pitch like a good #2 starter 60% of the time, pitch like a #5 starter 10% of the time and round out the totality of his starts with the occasional clunker. The stuff is relatively good but not completely ace-like. He’s durable and has far less mileage on his arm than almost any other pitcher in his category. He’s not without #rig and does a pretty good job of commanding the mound. Samardzija is affordable for the Diamondbacks in 2013, 2o14 and beyond. As an uncategorized bonus, he’s tall, has a big nose and a mullet, and last I checked, that plays up in Arizona (think: Big Unit, at least in terms of appearance).
• Likelihood of acquisition: pretty likely. Towers and Theo Epstein have been dancing around this deal since last summer. Initially, it sounds as if the Cubs demanded Bradley in return but have recently backed off of that demand. Now it sounds as if a package of Tyler Skaggs, Stryker Trahan and something else may get it done, which is affordable. I’ll actually be a little surprised if this doesn’t happen.

Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, Rakuten Eagles (Japan)

• Ace status: unknown, ace potential
• Age: 25
• Years of team control: depends on contract signed
• Available via: Rakuten posting fee plus free agent contract
• Thoughts: I’m probably unqualified to really say a whole lot on this one other than I was really impressed by Tanaka in the WBC and it sounds like most people that are knowledgeable on the topic have come away with the same feeling. I’ve heard “a younger Yu Darvish” in terms of his production, although I believe they go about pitching somewhat differently. Towers and the Diamondbacks have been scouting Tanaka for some time now and were among the first to get serious in his pursuit. Personally, I’m not sure I like the uncertainty involved and given the small margin of error for a team of Arizona’s size, a deal as big as the one Tanaka will receive is just too risky.
• Likelihood of acquisition: very low. I expect the Diamondbacks to be involved but the price will escalate to a level that pushes them out of the discussion. I’m not holding my breath and, given the risk, I think the team should focus its efforts elsewhere.

Brett Anderson, LHP, Athletics

• Ace status: not an ace
• Age: 26
• Years of team control: two
• Available via: trade
• Thoughts: Anderson is interesting in that he’s only 26 and is a former Rookie of the Year candidate signed to a very team-friendly deal. He was originally drafted by Arizona but flipped in the Dan Haren trade. Anderson was excellent in his debut and solid in his sophomore campaign before undergoing Tommy John. Since then, he’s essentially pitched 2/3 of a season worth of baseball over the last three years. An oblique strain and stress fracture in his foot have kept him off the mound. He is reportedly healthy and offers more upside at a discount than anyone else on the market. The durability issues keep him from being considered anything more than a lottery ticket in my eyes, though. With that said, he has the stuff and demeanor to be a real attribute if he were able to somehow throw 180 innings.
• Likelihood of acquisition: low-ish. He’s the kind of guy that Arizona can afford to take a gamble on given their rotation depth. I’m expecting other teams to be more desperate for his upside, however, such as the Jays or Mariners.

Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks

• Ace status: unknown, ace potential
• Age: 21
• Years of team control: six, maybe seven depending on call-up date
• Available via: call-up
• Thoughts: this one’s almost too easy. Bradley will supposedly get a chance to make the team out of Spring Training and while I don’t really expect him to be ready right away, there’s always the chance that he pulls a Matt Harvey/Jose Fernandez/Michael Wacha before the end of the year. In this sense, he won’t be the team’s ace from the first pitch of the season but can refine his command in AAA, then be the shot in the arm that the Diamondbacks need down the stretch. He’s been durable in the minors and clearly has the stuff to get big league hitters out. I can’t personally speak to his demeanor but all indicators point to him having the mental makeup necessary to lead the rotation.
• Likelihood of acquisition: very high, especially since this isn’t an acquisition at all. Unless the organization trades Bradley, which I simply don’t see happening, I believe we’ll see him in Phoenix at some point, likely after the All Star break. Next time you walk by a water fountain, do us all a favor and toss in a penny while wishing for his continued growth and health because an injury seems to be about the only thing that can stop him at this point.

The lasting impression here is that although Towers is seeking an ace, there just aren’t any true aces on the market that Arizona can afford, both in terms of trade costs and future salary. He’s best off acquiring a very good pitcher in Samardzija and bringing along the top pitching prospect in the game in Archie Bradley when he’s ready. It’s both affordable and realistic. While it’s not the big signing that fans clamor for, imagine a 2015 rotation of Samardzija, Bradley Corbin with Cahill, Skaggs, Miley and/or Delgado to fill out the rotation depending on who’s still part of the team at that point. That’s an excellent front three with well-above average options to fill the back end. I’d gladly take my chances with that group.

For all of the talk about aces, don’t be upset if you don’t see one come the Diamondbacks’ way. In fact, it’s probably in their best interest to stick with a combination of Samardzija and Bradley rather than mortgaging the farm for David Price, whom they’ll have to let walk after two years. Tanaka is a big risk and while there’s some upside in Anderson, they need more security than that. Besides, by keeping the cost down the team can afford to address some of those other needs. There’ll be no ace coming to Arizona, and that’s ok.