2015 Diamondbacks Top 30 Prospects: 1-10

The top 10 is finally here, and make no mistake, there’s plenty to like in the upper echelon of the Diamondbacks’ minor league system. While you’re likely familiar with the top couple of names here, take notice of the young prospects, from Single-A or below, who likely represent something of a new wave of potentially future D-backs. Arizona has done a great job of identifying and acquiring talent over the last few years and that’s reflected below.

Other installments:  Primer  |  21-30  |  11-20

10. Peter O’Brien

• Age: 24.3
• Position: C/OF
• Acquired: 2nd Round (94th overall) 2012 Draft, traded for Martin Prado
• 2014 Level(s): High-A Tampa (30 games), Double-A Trenton (72 games), Double-A Mobile (4 games), Arizona Fall League (22 games)
• 2013 Ranking: n/a
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

O’Brien has drawn a lot of attention since coming over from the Yankees this summer. In a system devoid of power bats, this kid clearly stands out. With the power, however, comes some red flags, mostly in the hit tool department where there’s plenty of swing and miss in O’Brien’s game at present. He strikes out frequently (>25%) and almost never walks (<5%), so it’s a power-with-poor-OBP profile at the moment. Defensively, the Diamondbacks are trying to make a catcher out of him, and that’s probably the right call although he’s got a long way to go behind the plate. O’Brien has plenty of arm, but the footwork and quickness need to be refined and it’s likely that he’ll spend the vast bulk of 2015 in Mobile working on his catching. But here’s the thing: he’s never spent all that much time behind the plate consistently, as the Yankees moved him around a bunch. So, there’s some hope that with constant reps and focus on defense that he can take a step forward in that department (it reportedly already has, to a degree). Given his offensive profile, working out as a catcher is easily the best case scenario as his value decreases immensely if he has to move to left field where he’s essentially Mark Trumbo with a little less power. Should first base prove to be the true fit, he could get traded quickly. The D-backs haven’t given up on him as a catcher, and perhaps we shouldn’t either, although the odds are certainly stacked against him.

Prospect Video

9. Sergio Alcantara

• Age: 18.3
• Position: SS
• Acquired: 2013 International Sign ($700,000)
• 2014 Level(s): Rookie – Missoula (70 games)
• 2013 Ranking: n/a
• Volatility: High
• Trending: Up

I missed on Alcantara in 2013, but reports from those who regularly saw him identified a ton of talent in the young shortstop. The bat is light and it might always be, but he’s got good instincts at short and projects to stay at the position long term. Alcantara will need to work on making more contact and developing a feel for the hit tool, but he played nearly all of 2014 at 17-years old, putting him on pace for full season baseball at 18, when many players are just making their rookie debuts. He’s not devoid of power, but it ranks as below average and he’s not exceptionally fast, meaning he’s not likely to be a serious stolen base threat. But one thing that can’t be taught, and that Alcantara possesses, is a good feel for the strike zone. In two minor league seasons, he’s struck out just eight more times than he’s walked, posting walk rates of 20% and 15% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Some of that stems from low level pitching not being able to throw consistent strikes and challenge him, which will change as he climbs the ladder, but give Alcantara credit for not chasing stuff out of the zone. An advanced approach at a young age, growing tools and the ability to play a marquee position puts Sergio Alcantara in the top ten of D-backs prospects.

8. Justin Williams

• Age: 19.2
• Position: OF
• Acquired: 2nd Round (52nd overall) 2013 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Rookie – Missoula (46 games), Single-A South Bend (28 games)
• 2013 Ranking: 10
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Steady

I got my first glimpse of Williams in the AZL in 2013 and was immediately impressed by the physicality of the second round pick. This resulted in me taking a chance by putting him in my top 10 in 2013 and it panned out well as he continued to make progress in 2014. A big kid at 6’2”, 200-pounds, he’s best suited for left field. Throughout his five minor league stops thus far, Williams has proven the ability to hit for a high average. Unfortunately, the power that was part of his profile as a prep hasn’t materialized. That said, he still possesses plus power and has a chance to make it a part of his game given that he makes plenty of contact. At this point, one wonders if he’s chosen contact over power, choosing not to sell out to make loud contact. Given his age, this is probably a good decision as the power is still projected to develop and rate as above average. If it does, Williams looks like a potential above average starter in left with 20-25 home run potential and a solid average to go along with it. He’s remained average in the strikeout and walk categories, not raising any flags but perhaps pointing to a need to continue to learn the strike zone. He’s got plenty of time, however, as the former LSU commit was one of the youngest players drafted in his class and he’ll play the vast majority of 2015 at 19-years old. He should start the year in Single-A Kane County with a chance at High-A Visalia a very real possibility.

Prospect Video 

*Update: traded to Tampa Bay for Jeremy Hellickson on 11/14/14

7. Andrew Velazquez

• Age: 20.3
• Position: SS
• Acquired: 7th Round (243rd overall) 2012 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Single-A South Bend
• 2013 Ranking: 23
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

Velazquez turned heads in 2014 by setting the minor league record for consecutive games reaching base (74 games). To call this a breakout season for the young shortstop would be an understatement as he went from a prospect on the periphery to someone regarded as on of the Diamondbacks’ prospects. The glove is smooth and the arm is above average, projecting him to stay at shortstop for the foreseeable future. Not noted as a plus runner, Velazquez stole 50 bases in 65 attempts this season, showing an above average ability to swipe bags. His bat is still a work in progress, which is nothing new for a 20-year old. He projects to have some pop, too, although he profile at the plate might be slightly weak, it’s at least somewhat well-rounded. The total package looks legit as he can stick up the middle, steal some bases and hit for average and develop gap power. In a system where there are a lot of players who rest their game on one particular tool, Velazquez appears to be someone who can do it all at a major league level down the road. I wouldn’t necessarily project him to become an All Star, but instead a steady major league contributor who won’t kill you in any facet of his game. Look for him to make the move to High-A in 2015 where he’ll face the stiffest competition of his career. This is a big chance for him to prove he’s for real and not just a player who had one excellent season.

*Update: traded to Tampa Bay for Jeremy Hellickson on 11/14/14

6. Jake Lamb

• Age: 24.1
• Position: 3B
• Acquired: 6th Round (213th overall) 2012 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Double-A Mobile (103 games), Triple-A Reno (5 games), Diamondbacks (37 games)
• 2013 Ranking: 7
• Volatility: Low
• Trending: Up

By now, just about everyone is familiar with Jake Lamb. He absolutely destroyed the Souther League in 2014 before being briefly promoted to Reno, then on the majors for a 37-game trail. The numbers were sexy and they really have been for Lamb all the way throughout his minor league career. In fact, we may have seen him sooner had he not lost the second half of his 2013 campaign to a broken hamate bone. But there’s a big divide on Lamb. Scouts have never loved his game, and this remains true. When talking to scouts over the last couple of weeks, several expressed major concerns over his strikeout potential, some suggesting that he could strikeout over 30% of the time due to a long swing and limited bat speed. Of course, we’ve heard some of these concerns about Lamb before, and while he projects as an average defensive third baseman, he’s risen to every challenge he’s seen. Can he make the necessary adjustments to survive the biggest jump in the game? Fortunately for us, we’ll likely get a chance to witness that early in 2015. With another prospect on this list nipping at his heels, the time in now for Lamb to prove the scouts wrong. I’m not betting him doing so in a big way, but all he’s done is prove people wrong since turning pro, so there’s a chance he figures it out. Average third base power is in there if he can make enough contact to tap into it, so let’s see what happens.

Prospect Video

5. Touki Toussaint

• Age: 18.3
• Position: RHP
• Acquired: 1st Round (16th overall) 2014 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Rookie – AZL (5 starts, 2 relief appearances), Rookie – Missoula (5 starts)
• 2013 Ranking: n/a
• Volatility: High
• Trending: Steady

Just about everything we know about Touki Toussaint comes from his time as one of the top preps in America as he pitched just 28.2 innings in his debut, split between two levels. An athletic, lanky, 6’3” right-hander, he has good stuff now with plenty of projection left. The heat runs in the low to mid 90’s consistently with some life to it. His curveball flashes above average right now at times, but it’s inconsistent and something he’ll have to be able to throw more consistently for strikes before it can reach its full potential. Toussaint’s third pitch, a changeup, is developing but projects to be at least an average offering in time with a chance for slightly more. Like just about every 18-year old pitcher on the planet, he’ll have to work on his mechanics to solidify the delivery, both maximizing it for effectiveness while making it a more consistent process. He appears to rush his delivery a bit at times and can get ahead of himself on the mound, but that’ll likely recede with repetition and professional coaching. Command will be the issue with Toussaint and it may take some time to come. Don’t be shocked if he moves somewhat slowly up the ladder as the team will likely elect to limit his workload early on, taking it slow with their 2014 first rounder. He has number two starter upside should it all come together.

Prospect Video

4. Brandon Drury

• Age: 22.2
• Position: 2B/3B
• Acquired: 13th Round (404th overall) 2010 Draft, traded for Justin Upton
• 2014 Level(s): High-A Visalia (107 games), Double-A Mobile (29 games), Arizona Fall League (20 games)
• 2013 Ranking: 13
• Volatility: Low
• Trending: High

Drury has arguably raised his stock as much as anyone in the Diamondbacks’ system in 2014. He crushed High-A, which wasn’t unforeseen given that it was the CAL league and balls fly there. More impressively, he didn’t miss a beat after being promoted to Double-A Mobile, which turned heads and raised his stock considerably and earned him a late season opportunity in the Arizona Fall League. Drury should hit for a reasonable average with the power output being debatable, rating as either average or plus, depending on who you talk to. He’s racked up the doubles throughout his minor league career while putting a modest number of balls over the fence and that appears to be the case going forward as his raw power is closer to average than plus. Still, he should make enough contact to tap into it regularly. He’s done a good job of balancing his strikeout to walk ratios throughout the minors, too, so there’s hope that he’ll continue to post solid OBPs. Where he lines up on the diamond is somewhat up in the air at the moment. While he’s played a solid third base all through the minors, the Diamondbacks seem compelled to give him looks at second in an attempt to get his bat in the big league lineup sooner rather than later. In a limited look at him at second, I saw a player who can make the routine plays but won’t likely turn heads with his ability to cover ground. The D-backs will have an interesting conundrum on their hands should he continue to hit as projected as they have plenty of depth at second base right now and Jake Lamb penciled in at third with Aaron Hill. They’ll have to make room for Drury, though, as he’s shown no signs of slowing down and a hot start in Double-A could make him a candidate for big league time next September.

Prospect Video

3. Aaron Blair

• Age: 22.4
• Position: RHP
• Acquired: 1st Supplemental Round (36th overall) 2013 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Single-A South Bend (6 starts), High-A Visalia (13 starts), Double-A Mobile (8 starts)
• 2013 Ranking: 11
• Volatility: Low
• Trending: Up

Like Drury above, Blair’s stock shot straight up in 2014, thanks in large part to dominating performances at three different levels. When drafted, most saw him as a back end starter with an ability to log innings and generate ground balls. After an additional year of development, one in which he added some velocity, he’s starting to look more like a potential number three in the mold of John Lackey or Lance Lynn, according FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel’s scouting sources. The strikeouts have held steady at a rate higher than expected and he’s still generating a ton of heavy sink on his fastball, which should aid him in keeping the ball on the ground and keep hitters from making quality contact. In 154.1 innings this season, he notched a higher-than-projected strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate very manageable. At this point, he hasn’t shown  any signs of weakness and may reach the majors faster than either of two pitchers below. Due to this, one could make an argument that he belongs higher on this list, but my preference is to weigh the upside, and while Blair looks like a durable, effective big league starter with mechanics that are easy to repeat, I’m still slotting him third for now. Of his pitches, the sinking fastball and curve have an ability to be plus while the changeup will likely remain average. Blair’s ability to command the zone makes his stuff play up as he essentially has learned to maximize his offerings by locating them. The question is whether or not he exhausts his rookie status in 2015 and is eligible for another prospect list next year. He’s moving fast enough that this may be the last we see of Aaron Blair as a “prospect,” which is fine by me. Chalk this one up as another win for former scouting director, Ray Montgomery.

Prospect Video

2. Braden Shipley

• Age: 22.7
• Position: RHP
• Acquired: 1st Round (15th overall) 2013 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Single-A South Bend (8 starts), High-A Visalia (10 starts), Double-A Mobile (4 starts
• 2013 Ranking: 4
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

Shipley and Blair have been on the “buddy system” since turning pro as they’ve made similar progress through the minors. But that’s about where the comparison ends as Shipley is a different animal than Blair. One of the best raw athletes of any pitching prospect in the minors, having played some shortstop in college, Braden Shipley boasts a higher upside and better raw stuff than his fellow draftee above. His fastball sits in the mid 90’s with the ability to flash in the upper 90’s. The pitch can be a bit flat at times, as has been reported on a few occasions, causing it to lose effectiveness when it straightens out. His best pitch is his changeup, which has often been regarded as the best pitch of its type in the minors, and he has a curveball that’s improved significantly since he turned pro. Shipley is still learning to command his pitches fully, but he’s made improvements in this department as well. Relatively new to pitching, he’s also working on his conditioning and an ability to keep control of his stuff into the later innings of his outings. There’s more work to do here than there was with Blair above. That said, the upside is also higher with Shipley looking every bit like a number two starter, perhaps a number a number three if the development starts to stall a bit. Either way, that puts him a notch above Blair in the rotation even though it will likely take him a bit longer to reach the majors. Shipley was noted as a potential steal for the D-backs at 15th overall in the 2013 draft, and right now, that’s looking to be the case.

Prospect Video

1. Archie Bradley

• Age: 22.3
• Position: RHP
• Acquired: 1st Round (7th overall) 2011 Draft
• 2014 Level(s): Double-A Mobile (12 starts), Triple-A Reno (5 starts), Arizona Fall League (5 starts)
• 2013 Ranking: 1
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Steady

It’s easy to forget how good Archie Bradley is. The expectations have been high since he joined the organization in the summer of 2011 and it seems like unrealistic expectations have been attached to him for a while now, but consider this: he still pitched 2014 primarily as a 21-year old in the upper reaches of the minors. Sure, he had a tough go of things at times, but no other player in this system has the raw ability of Bradley. Most notably, his command would wax and wane, allowing him to absolutely dominate some starts, then walk five batters and give up solid contact in others. He’s had issues repeating his mechanics, thanks in part to a high leg kick and some tilt in the delivery, but that’s also part of what allows him to reach premium velocity and generate extra spin on his breaking stuff. The nature of the beast is that he does a couple of risky things in his delivery to create premium raw stuff (plus-plus potential fastball, plus-plus potential curveball, average changeup and a new pitch, a cutter/slider that scouts seemed very pleased with) and so the Diamondbacks appear (wisely, I might add) to be willing to let him simply try to hone his command with his given setup rather than breakdown his mechanics. Seeing him in person, he was as advertised: a big kid with big time stuff that wasn’t always hitting the strike zone. On the plus side, in my limited looks, he was usually missing down in the zone, a safer place to miss. He has number two starter upside, but I think his appearances may vary from time to time, with him looking like an ace in some outings and a number three in others. That inconsistency is likely to be a part of his game for some time until he develops the ultimate feel for his pitches and/or gets his command issues ironed out. The gap between Bradley and the rest of the pack has shrunk, but that’s partly due to other posting positive performances. He’s still on pace to see the majors at the age of 22, so while the results may be volatile for a while, the upside is still there. Scouts I’ve recently spoke with have liked what they’e seen out of Bradley this year despite the fact that he’s struggled. Keep in mind, this is the first time he’s dealt with failure in his career and it might just be for the better that he gets it out of the way in the high minors before reaching The Show. He’ll get looks in Spring Training but should head back to Triple-A to start the season with a big league opportunity likely in the latter half of the season.

Prospect Video

After roughly 3,200 words on the top ten Diamondbacks minor league talents, a couple of trends emerge. First, the top of the system is pitcher-heavy with right-handed starters taking up four of the last five slots. Homegrown lefties like Patrick Corbin and Wade Miley can and will balance this out in time. Also apparent, there is a large gap in upsides here: the trio of Bradley/Shipley/Blair make up a strong nucleus, then there’s a slight drop to Drury, another drop to Toussaint, then a big fall off to guys who may or may not work at the highest level. Williams could learn to use his power and rake, or will he find serious struggle along the way and wash out? Velazquez was huge in 2014, but was it for real? Can Jake Lamb handle major league pitching? Will O’Brien catch? Can Alcantara’s bat take the necessary steps forward?

You see where this is going. There are a handful of guys who look like sure-fire big league contributors, then the rest. This isn’t uncommon, of course, but once guys like Bradley/Shipley/Blair/Drury graduate to the majors (which could be complete by mid 2016), what does that leave behind? Arizona can use their 1.1 pick this summer to help add impact, and hopefully a guy or two will step forward, but while the system has added some depth and improved overall, it’s still top heavy without a lot of support. For now, though, we have to be please that the big league club without a ton of talent has some viable reinforcements on the way.