Roundup: Other D-backs Trade Assets

Happy holidays! Jeff and I are both out of pocket for much of this week, and our coverage may be a little abbreviated. From us to you, though: stay safe and have a wonderful time.

Last week, I took a look at the Diamondbacks’ top trade assets from a “surplus value” perspective, which isn’t perfect. Ceiling can be more or less valuable to a club than floor or certainty, depending on a team’s other players and where it is in the win cycle. So take the “surplus value” numbers with that grain of salt — ceiling, floor and certainty can bump some guys up or down a theoretical list, and some guys (like relievers and spare parts like Cody Ross) are probably more valuable in July than they are in January.

That said, here are the guys who got some heavy consideration for the top ten, but fell a little short:

#11: Jeremy Hellickson, Est. Surplus Value: $10M

We have a recent check on Hellickson’s value as being equivalent to that of two good-not-great prospects, and although the fact of the trade is probably a good indication that the D-backs valued Hellickson a bit higher than other clubs do at the moment, he’s still probably ahead of the other players on this list.

#12: Addison Reed, Est. Surplus Value: $10M

As with Mark Trumbo, Reed’s perceived value is probably higher than his actual value. The propriety of using a fly ball reliever to close at Chase Field is very questionable, but Reed is still a fine reliever who could and likely would close for at least half of all MLB clubs.

#13: Brandon Drury, Est. Surplus Value: $40M

Brandon Drury might be a total bust, or he might be an above-average third baseman for several years. He is certainly the D-backs’ most valuable position player prospect at this point.

#14: Rubby De La Rosa, Est. Surplus Value: $40M

A heavy reliance on a straight fastball and a very significant Times Through the Order Penalty may eventually put De La Rosa in the bullpen, but as we said in the Miley trade piece, RDLR is pretty valuable if his floor is “good reliever.” He might turn into a pretty decent starter. And the D-backs are committed to giving him a shot, so that doesn’t hurt his perceived value, either.

#15: Allen Webster, Est. Surplus Value: $35M

Webster’s value could rocket if it looks like his past struggles were psychological, and that he’s in a position to excel now out of Boston. But that’s a big “if,” and his floor is still “not a major leaguer.”

#16: Evan Marshall, Est. Surplus Value: $45M

Everything from hard hit data to walk and strikeout rates point to a plus reliever. Marshall had a 2.74 ERA backed by a 2.89 FIP last season, and that was despite a ridiculously high .351 BABIP. He had a bit of luck with Left on Base percentage, but if his luck all evened out next year, he’d be better, not worse. And “better” would be “why is this guy closing instead of Addison Reed.”

#17: Brad Ziegler, Est. Surplus Value: $8M

Ziegler is proven, unique, and uniquely helpful; one cannot always anticipate double play situations, but the possibility that Ziegler can get used more frequently at those times ups his value quite a bit. Ziegler has to prove he can pitch after microfracture surgery on his knee (not exactly a sure thing), but signed at a good contract with a nice option, Ziegler could fetch a B+ prospect… in July.

#18: Jake Lamb, Est. Surplus Value: $25M

I don’t know what to say; I like Lamb more than most. He has the makings of a professional hitter. It seems like he deserves the chance to prove that his minor league BABIPs were a sign that he can consistently make good contact; but until he does, his value is not terribly high. Jeff pointed out that he’s had platoon splits in the past. I don’t think his splits in 2012 or 2013 were out of the ordinary, especially for a lefty; in 2014, he hit lefties even better than righties. Just another thing that Lamb will have to prove he can do in the majors.

#19: David Peralta, Est. Surplus Value: $35M

Peralta has a great story and the talent to be a flawed but very helpful hitter in the majors. Hitters with his skills have been important parts of good outfields, a la Craig Gentry now of Oakland; it remains to be seen how the D-backs will use him, but other teams have to know that they can get Daniel Nava-type production out of him, but at the major league minimum.

#20: Yasmany Tomas, Est. Surplus Value: $20M

The Tomas situation is weird, and we’re only pretending that he could be traded. Yes, many in the industry thought it would take more to sign him — but maybe the bottom will fall out. I’ll stand by the assessment that this was a good sign, but so soon after so many teams were pursuing Tomas and didn’t pay more, it’s hard to think that Tomas would bring back much in a trade right now.

The links:

• Nick Piecoro had a stunning piece in the wake of the Wade Miley trade about the D-backs’ reservations on Miley’s work ethic. That’s a big piece of the puzzle in understanding what happened here, because moving Miley makes sense in some ways but completely doesn’t in others. Miley’s comments about the D-backs’ nutrition efforts has the feel of a deflection a little bit; there’s probably some less-than-flattering aspects about the stories of both sides. But seriously? The D-backs tried to put Miley on a gluten-free diet? Do they know what they’re talking about re: gluten?
• Steve Gilbert has the details on the one-year deal signed by the D-backs and David Hernandez. We knew Hernandez was in the fold once the D-backs tendered him a contract. At exactly $2M for 2015, the deal falls a little under the $2.125M projection by Matt Swartz. It’s probably good that the player and team came to an arrangement; the D-backs’ only incentive to bring him off the DL next season will be baseball reasons for 2015. It’s possible that Hernandez will think he’s ready before the D-backs do, but with such a bullpen crunch, I agree that the D-backs will most likely take their time.
• It’s been a mostly quiet week in D-backs country, but not in the NL West. The Padres landed three outfielders in five days, one of whom was Justin Upton. Andrew Joseph laid out the new Upton trade. It’s more than a little annoying that the package the Padres gave up for one expensive year of Upton looks better than the one the D-backs got for three years of Upton. Part of that is Randall Delgado not panning out as a starter, but still, when you add two years of Upton into it, this new Upton trade makes the old one look very poor.
• Current Bovada odds for the World Series have the D-backs at 75 to 1. If I had to come up with three “bet” recommendations, the D-backs might be on there… I think their chances are not twice as bad as that of the 33 to 1 Indians, Marlins or Pirates. And it’s time to look out for the 150 to 1 Astros. Third team would probably be the 25 to 1 Yankees (that’s just weird). The bump that the Padres have gotten (now 18 to 1; just one week ago, they were 40 to 1) is probably too big.
• At Snake Pit, shoewizard has some great thoughts about how the D-backs may have hurt Miley’s trade value — and how they can avoid doing the same thing in the future. That’s the worst vestige of the Kevin Towers front office, and as much as I love reading this stuff, I agree it’s good for the organization to get it shut down. Also at Snake Pit: check out this poll on how “we” think the front office is doing.
• Jim McLennan also has some good news for us on the winter ball front, including for three players who will be fighting for prominent roles on the 2015 squad: David Peralta, Ender Inciarte, and Randall Delgado.
• At Venom Strikes, Chris Jackson discusses what looks like the D-backs’ current choices for the #1 overall draft pick in June. You know, that thing that the D-backs got for doing so well at doing so badly last year.