Corbin and Cahill to Pitch in Australia

Yesterday Kirk Gibson pegged Patrick Corbin and Trevor Cahill as his starters for the opening series in Australia. Corbin was an easy choice; he was the Diamondbacks best pitcher in 2013. The selection of Cahill was a bit more surprising. Wade Miley had a better year than Cahill, but Cahill actually seems like the right choice. The Dodgers have not announced their starters yet, but we can speculate as to who they might be.

Last year Patrick Corbin was the star amongst a crew of unspectacular starting pitchers. He was worth almost four wins above replacement, striking out 20.7% of the batters he faced and only walking 6.3%. It is pretty obvious that Corbin was the D-backs best starting pitcher in 2013, so having him start the first game was the right choice.

Cahill was a good choice because of his dominance against the Dodgers. In four starts against the Dodgers last year he gave up a total of four earned runs. It doesn’t just seem like dumb luck either. He was almost as good against the Dodgers in 2012, with a 2.88 ERA. This success against the Dodgers makes sense. They had a lineup heavy with right-handed batters, and Cahill is much better against right-handed batters. Last season Cahill held righties to a .236 average and a .319 wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average).

The way these games are arranged makes Cahill a better pick as well. Since these two games are going to be played way before the rest of the regular-season games, managers will not be hesitant to use their bullpens. Since the relievers will have lots of time to rest before the next set of games, there is no concern in heavily using them. Cahill averaged less than six innings per start last year. Normally that would be a concern, but for this series, four or five quality innings would be sufficient. The value of pitching deep into a game is greatly diminished in the opening two games in Australia, making Trevor Cahill a great choice.

As for the Dodgers, Zach Grienke is not pitching in Australia. That leaves Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-jin Ryu, and Dan Haren. The Dodgers are supposedly concerned about Kershaw’s workload (he pitched 259 innings last season, including the postseason), but it seems unlikely that they would hold him out. He is one of the best pitchers in the planet, and gives them the best chance to win.

That leaves Ryu and Haren for the second starting spot. Neither Ryu nor Haren is on track to pitch on March 22, so no help there. In five starts against the D-backs last year, Ryu gave up three runs or less four times. He gave them quality starts, and had a very good season overall. He was worth 3.1 wins and maintained a 3.24 FIP. Haren was not nearly as good, with a WAR of 1.5 and 4.09 FIP. It’s true that Dan Haren was worth more than six wins in 2010 and has a long history of being very good, but Ryu has been better lately. Ryu is the more likely choice, but either way the Diamondbacks are likely to have their hands full.