2016 Diamondbacks Top Prospects: 11-20

Last week we kicked off the Diamondbacks Top 30 with two posts, first a Primer, then Prospects 21-30. The back end of the list is difficult to compose as there isn’t much that distinguishes most players in that category. But this list, well, it’s entirely different as projected outcomes shift significantly from #20 through #11. There are guys here project as major league bench players, platoon starters and rotation fixtures. These guys have been added through the draft, trades and international signings. All in all, it’s group that provides some hope, or at least future trade ammunition. That’s not a dig at the the Diamondbacks but rather highlights that they do have some depth to deal from should they find themselves so inclined, which seems rather likely this winter.

 #20 Jack Reinheimer, 2B/SS

• Age: 23
• Acquired: 2015 Trade for Mark Trumbo
• 2015 Level(s): AA Mobile (76 games)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: Low
• Trending: Steady

Reinheimer won’t be the last player that was acquired in return for Mark Trumbo on this list and he’s more than just an afterthought. Despite not having much name recognition with Diamondbacks fans when the deal went down in June, scouts have long been familiar and impressed with him. At the plate, the swing is simple – it’s of the line drive variety and should produce far more gap shots than home runs – and the bat speed is average. It’s a swing designed to make plenty of contact and Reinheimer is an above average as a runner. His plate discipline is solid and he’ll take a walk and get on base frequently. Defensively, he’s been playing shortstop all season in AA and in the Arizona Fall League and he’s average there, which is fine, but it’s not a plus glove and the arm isn’t the strongest. Ultimately, it appears he’ll end up a utility infielder who won’t kill you when you need to give your starters a day off. He may get a look in Arizona in 2016.

#19 Jake Barrett, RHP

• Age: 24
• Acquired: 2012 Draft, 3rd Round
• 2015 Level(s): AAA Reno (22 games), AA Mobile (25 games)
• 2014 Rankings: 11th
• Volatility: High
• Trending: Down

There isn’t a whole lot that went right for Jake Barrett in 2015. Two years ago, he seemed like the closer-in-waiting, a guy who came from a strong college program (Arizona State) and was moving up the ranks rapidly by mowing down hitters. Then AA happened, he slowed down a bit, and a promotion to AAA Reno proved too much. At 23, he had time and he opened 2015 back in Reno where things went downhill from the get-go. A midseason demotion to AA Mobile didn’t help matters all that much, either. He’s still a guy with two above average offerings in a the fastball and slider (his changeup lags behind these two), but his command hasn’t sharpened enough to allow him to maximize his arsenal. Walks have been an issue for two years now and the extra pitches thrown for balls force him to come over the plate where upper minors hitters don’t miss. Barrett hangs on the list for now as a guy with back end of the bullpen stuff and high leverage potential, but it’s going the wrong way at the moment. Where he starts 2016 is a mystery right now as it could be AA or AAA.

 #18 Domingo Leyba, 2B/SS

• Age: 20
• Acquired: 2014 Trade for Didi Gregorius
• 2015 Level(s): A+ Visalia (124 games)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Down

When the Diamondbacks flipped Didi Gregorius to the Yankees, it was Robbie Ray that headlined the return package. Domingo Leyba was in there as well as a hit-first shortstop with an innate ability to square up the baseball. At just 19, he made a surprise trip to the Arizona Fall League last season, an honor usually reserved for much more experienced players. After coming to Arizona, he was assigned to Visalia for the entire 2015 campaign where he found the sledding tougher than expected. He was just 19 for the bulk of the season, however, and the struggles can, at least in part, be attributed to a low BABIP. The hit tool remains his selling point as the power will end up below average and it’s widely expected that he’ll slide over to second base at some point. The swing is sweet from both sides of the plate, however, and he should make a bunch of quality contact. He could stand improve his plate discipline some – he doesn’t walk – but time is on his side. The upside is that of a second division starter or a quality bench player. It’ll be interesting to see if the team is aggressive and sends him to AA or gives him some more seasoning in Visalia to open 2016.

 #17 Daniel Palka, 1B/RF

• Age: 24
• Acquired: 2012 Draft, 3rd Round
• 2015 Level(s): A+ Visalia (129 games)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

Palka is coming off of a monster season, one in which he slugged 68 extra-base hits (including 29 homers) while swiping 24 bases. The first baseman-turned-outfielder hit a robust .280/.352/.532 in 129 games for High-A Visalia, earning him a trip to the Arizona Fall League where he’s shown well. But the devil is in the details, to a degree. At 24, Palka was older than the vast majority of the competition (his teammate above played most of the season at 19) and he was in an extreme hitter’s environment. His swing has plenty of extra movement, including some funk with his hands during the load phase, which is a concern. Palka whiffs at a considerable rate and has apparently sold out for power, which isn’t the end of the world since he’s capable of plus raw. But against higher level pitching, the mechanical concerns and the lack of physical projection start to limit his ceiling. He’s good enough in the outfield to suggest he can stay there (probably in left), but until we see him perform well again at at least AA Mobile, we can’t know just how his 2015 success will translate going forward. He’s a wild card for me, but I’ll suggest that the upside is more of a back up outfielder/bench bat long term. As a left-handed hitter, should he have a strong start to his 2016 campaign in Mobile, he could find his way to Arizona in short order to provide another lefty option, especially if an outfielder gets traded.

 #16 Yoan Lopez, RHP

• Age: 22
• Acquired: 2014 International Sign ($8.1 million)
• 2015 Level(s): AZL D-backs (1 game, 1 start), AA Mobile (10 games, 9 starts)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: High
• Trending: Down

If you read here often, you’re probably familiar with the Yoan Lopez Saga. If you don’t, here’s the short version: the D-backs blew their international bonus pool on Lopez (costing them future talent), then didn’t take advantage of the penalty window (costing them present talent) only to find that Lopez struggled mightily to adjust to baseball and life in the U.S. (he took an unannounced leave of absence midseason [read: he disappeared on the team for a few days]) en route to a poor debut season on the mound. And it’s on the mound that Lopez will ultimately be judged as the personal struggles to adjust are somewhat understandable. He sits 93-94 with his four-seamer and has touched 96 in the Arizona Fall League, but his command of the pitch is still worrisome and it impacts the rest of an arsenal – a changeup and a curveball – that isn’t exactly devastating. There is some effort in the delivery, but Lopez is a good athlete and has plenty of room to fill out, leaving a little bit of projection. At this very moment, it looks like he’s most likely to end up in the bullpen long term as a potential 7th/8th inning guy where his stuff might play up. But another season, one in which he’s comfortable and finds some kind of rhythm, might put his projection back in the rotation as a back end starter. It’s full-on wait and see mode for Lopez right now, but the stock is down and the volatility is high, so it’s hard to get overly excited here. I’d guess he’s back in Mobile to open 2016.

#15 Brad Keller, RHP

• Age: 20
• Acquired: 2013 Draft, 8th Round
• 2015 Level(s): A Kane County (26 games, 25 starts)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

Keller dropped off the list last year after appearing at #29 in 2013. A big year from the 6’5″, 230-pound 20-year old in full season ball vaulted him from the fringe of the discussion to the middle of the list this season. While his strikeout numbers won’t wow you, Keller is a ground ball machine in the mold of fellow big-bodied righty Aaron Blair. He’s tough to square up as his low 90’s sinker has plenty arm-side run and he’s got a changeup that can induce a ton of weak contact. His slider is behind the other two pitches at present, but could eventually play up to average. His only value is as innings-eating starter as he doesn’t have the type of stuff that will play up in the bullpen effectively. Fortunately, he has the frame to remain durable and the stuff to survive if he can keep inducing the grounders. At 20, he dominated in full season ball, putting him right on schedule to hit High-A in 2016 and pitch the first half of the season before turning 21. It’s not a sexy profile, but it just might be very, very effective one.

 #14 Zack Godley, RHP

• Age: 25
• Acquired: 2014 Trade for Miguel Montero
• 2015 Level(s): A+ Visalia (14 games, 12 starts), AA Mobile (7 games, 5 starts), MLB Diamondbacks (9 games, 6 starts)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: Low
• Trending: Up

What a year for Zack Godley. He started his campaign as a 25-year old in High-A, then rushed up to the majors in the second half of the season where he somehow survived despite not throwing strikes. Regardless, this is the kind of pop-up season that makes people rise up and take notice. Here, however, we’re looking forward and a low 90’s cutter and just okay secondaries aren’t overly exciting. There’s no projection left and he did get a lot of help from hitters, plus some luck, during his big league debut. That said, he also proved that he can pitch in the majors at some level, it’s just not likely to be the 3.19 ERA level registered in his 36.1 big league innings. As of now, the upside is that of a fifth starter if he can refine the repertoire a little further or he may provide some length in the bullpen as a long man/middle reliever. Considering he was part of a salary dump (offloading Montero), that kind of return is a big win for Arizona. He’ll contend for a major league job in 2016, although it’s projected to be a crowded competition yet again.

#13 Taylor Clarke, RHP

• Age: 22
• Acquired: 2015 Draft, 3rd Round
• 2015 Level(s): A- Hillsboro (13 games)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

Clarke was is a product of good scouting on behalf of the Diamondbacks who took a gamble on him after he lost a collegiate season to Tommy John surgery, then transferred schools when Towson was going to shut down their baseball program. He took his game to the College of Charleston where he played two seasons, striking out 143 batters in 114.1 innings as a senior. After turning pro, he moved to the bullpen where his velocity jumped and he dominated Northwest League hitters, logging 27 strike outs and just four walks in 21 innings. It’s projected that he’ll move back to the rotation in 2016 after one opposing NWL manager was quoted as saying “He shouldn’t be in (this) league. The ball comes out his hand like a man who knows he should be at a higher level.” With a fastball that clocks in anywhere from 92-96 with a plus slider and a developing changeup, he has the repertoire in place to make quality starts. At 6’4″ and 200-pounds, Clarke generates downhill plane that should help him be even more effective. If he can stay healthy, he looks like a steal in the third round with either fourth starter upside or the ability to pitch in high leverage situations. He’ll start the 2016 campaign at Kane County.

#12 Gabby Guerrero, RF

• Age: 21
• Acquired: 2015 Trade for Mark Trumbo
• 2015 Level(s): AA Jacksonville (48 games), AA Mobile (78 games)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: High
• Trending: Steady

There’s a lot to like about Guerrero. The similarities to his uncle are immediately apparent as his build and swing are lot like Uncle Vlad’s. There’s plus power potential in the bat, a strong throwing arm and enough athleticism to man right field. The swing is unorthodox and there’s some extra movement in it as he uses his wrists and hands prominently when he hacks. And that’s the bad news: he hacks a lot. The hit tool is lagging far behind the others and it robs him of the opportunity to tap into the power with consistency. There’s a lot of swing and miss to his game and strikeouts have been a growing concern as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. Since coming over from Seattle, he made a bit more contact and the power ticked up, too, but there’s a long way to go. Should those adjustments be made – he’s just 21 and played a full year in AA – there’s enough talent to warrant an everyday job in the outfield. If they don’t get made, he might never make it out of AA. He should head back to Mobile to open 2016 after turning 22, and even if it takes him two more years of refining his approach at the plate and his swing, he could still debut at 24. That, plus Welington Castillo and Reinheimer above make the Mark Trumbo (and Vidal Nuno) trade look like a coup for the D-backs.

 #11 Wei-Chieh Huang, RHP

• Age: 22
• Acquired: 2014 International Sign ($450,000)
• 2015 Level(s): A Kane County (15 games, 12 starts)
• 2014 Rankings: n/a
• Volatility: Medium
• Trending: Up

Huang hails from Taiwan and was a relatively large bonus signing for the Diamondbacks during the 2014 international signing period. In his debut, he went from completely off the radar to the Futures Game on the back of 76.2  solid innings with 68 strikeouts and just 16 walks (his MiLB season was cut short as he went to play on the Taiwanese National Team in September – h/t: commenter Chung-Han). A frail 6’1″ and 178-pounds, Huang will have to prove he can survive a starter’s workload, but he has the tools to do it. His fastball sits 91-92, has touched 94, and he has a plus changeup that gets plenty of swings and misses. His breaking pitch lags behind and he’ll need to develop it to remain a starter long term. There’s reason to hope that he can add some velocity as he fills out his frame and, considering he was transitioning to life in the U.S., his 2.00 ERA is highly encouraging. There’s enough here to think the can turn into a back end starter down the line (he has a nearly identical scouting report to Chase Anderson) though there is admittedly a long ways to go. He’ll take a run at Visalia to being 2016, something that will test his abilities immediately given the nature of the California League.

Other pieces in this series: Top 30 Primer | Prospects #21-30 | Prospects 1-10

Minor League Season Recaps: AZL and DSL | Pioneer and Northwest Leagues | Midwest and California Leagues | Southern and Pacific Coast Leagues