Projection Peek: D-backs Position Players in 2015

I’m angry with Max Scherzer. On the day that I’ve been anticipating, the day Dan Szymborski and Carson Cistulli unveiled the 2015 ZiPS projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the former D-back Scherzer decided to steal the show and sign some little contract with the Nationals (so much for the headlines). I know that fans sometimes have issues with projection systems, but by and large, they’re very good and projections systems run everything from Wall Street to weather forecasts, so they’re incredibly valuable. We may end up doing more with the projections at a later date, but for now, let’s take a quick peek at who the projections like, who they dislike and what surprises they forecast.

*In the 2014 version of this feature, I gave a good disclaimer on how to use the projection systems, so please read that if you’re unfamiliar. Steamer gave essentially no projection for most minor league players, so we’re left with ZiPS for those.

Position Players

Who They Like

Paul Goldschmidt – how could they not like Goldy? Everyone else does and he’s an elite talent. Both systems have him pegged as one of the very best first basemen in the game today because, well, he’s one of the best first basemen in the game today. An above average walk rate, a manageable strikeout rate and raw power make Paul Goldschmidt elite. Again.

A.J. Pollock – both projection systems are buying Pollock, a year after people weren’t sure if he was a fluke. Even though he only played half a season in 2014, the production he compiled was enough to sway the models and rate him as the second-best offensive force for the Diamondbacks. Playing excellent defense in center never hurts, either.

Who They Dislike

Tuffy Gosewisch – no surprise here, both Steamer and ZiPS are lukewarm at best on Tuffy. On the bright side, they see him having at least some kind of value, even if it is at a rate of just a half a win over 600 plate appearances. Of course, that leaves little margin for error and he could quickly be worth negative value, which isn’t encouraging. At his age, any kind of major breakthrough would be unexpected and it appears that what we’ve seen is what we’ve got.

Oscar Hernandez – this a borderline surprise, but only because both systems have Hernandez as at least having some kind of value, not because he has any kind of impact value. Of course, Steamer and ZiPS have very little data to go on with Hernandez and they can’t rate his defense. This is a case where we need to lean on the scouts perhaps more heavily than the projections.

Cody Ross – given his injuries and the downturn in his production, the projections for Ross are less than rosy. And it’s not like D-backs fans are expecting a lot out of the guy in 2015 given his slow recovery from a nasty dislocated hip and a significant loss of time at the plate. Essentially, he’s viewed as a replacement-level player by both Steamer and ZiPS at this point in his career. I think there’s a chance he can be a little more than that, but that chance depends largely on if he’s platooned to face left-handed pitchers and protected from righties.

David Peralta – this may come as a bit of a letdown to those who cheered Peralta on during his rookie season, but the projections aren’t high on the young slugger. They aren’t buying his 2014 breakout. A nearly non-existent walk rate doesn’t help and he was simply putrid against left-handed pitching. The projections can’t factor in a platoon if the Chip Hale chooses to use Peralta in that fashion, but it’s conceivable that he and Ross could be platooned if needed to maximize their abilities. Then again, all David Peralta has ever done is prove people wrong and it’s a small sample of data to analyze in the first place, so maybe he has another MLB growth spurt ahead of him. This is a tough one to project, but there are some red flags.

Surprises

Ender Inciarte – hey, hey, the guy that we’ve been particularly high on here at Inside the ‘Zona is projected to a valuable asset again in 2015 by ZiPS and at least helpful by Steamer. The D-backs have seemingly already relegated him to a 4th outfielder role, and I guess that’s fine, but they’re doing so at what looks like a detriment to the overall production of the outfield as Inciarte projects to be better than Trumbo, Peralta and Ross.

Brandon Drury – color me shocked, but the projection systems seem to be buying Brandon Drury’s minor league production and think it will translate well to the majors. This isn’t’ always the case as some of the other minor leaguers on the list show. Although he’s two years younger than Jake Lamb, the systems have the two essentially even at this point and I’ll take the younger player every day of the week. If you’ve listened to The Pool Shot, you’ll be familiar with my stance that Drury is the third baseman that should be on people’s radars, and the fact that he could conceivably play second is a nice bonus if the organization makes a hole for him there in order to get his bat into the lineup by the end of 2015 or start of 2016.

Yasmany Tomas – okay, this isn’t really surprise. I mean, there isn’t a lot of data to go off of and Steamer skipped Tomas altogether. But, ZiPS has taken his Cuban performance into account thinks he can be an average major major leaguer in his debut, which would be a good start to Tomas’ career. That said, it’s unclear how much his defensive ability at third will either help of hinder his cause, so that’s surely something to watch as I recently pointed out.

A Thin Group

As we’ve said all along, the position player pool for the Diamondbacks is thin. Aside from two stars, it’s a handful of average players and worse. Even with a healthy Goldschmidt and Pollock all season, something we can’t exactly count on, the team isn’t going to lead the NL in runs scored. In fact, they’ll be lucky to be middle of the pack. This is where a good debut from Tomas and some smart platoons in the outfield could help, but those are fickle things until we see players take the field and the manager fill out the lineup card.

Projections are fun in that they give us a well-educated glimpse into what may lie around the corner. I’m sure you’ll have your bones to pick, as do I, but remember, these systems do an extremely good job for an extremely nuanced community of players. Keep your eyes peeled as I’ll have the pitching side ready for viewing very shortly.

*Full ZiPS projections can be found here and Steamer projections can be found on the individual players pages of FanGraphs