Posts by: Ryan P. Morrison

Jake Lamb Stance Adjustment Less About Weaknesses, More About Strength

On March 8, 2016 By

I say this in the most sober way possible: I’ve probably given up the claim of objectivity when it comes to Jake Lamb. But my “appreciation” was born out of something objective: an evidence-based belief that he’d reach his imagined ceiling, and that the (very few) players of his ilk get short shrift in the majors. The guy looked …

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Double Plus: A Way Too Early PITCHf/x “Analysis”

On March 4, 2016 By

As Jeff noted last week, seems like Robbie Ray is a favorite around here. As it happens, he also pitched yesterday — the first game in 2016 for which Gameday has PITCHf/x information for the D-backs. As it happens, the data it spit out looks completely impossible. It’s Double Plus — feel like looking at it with me anyway? Sure …

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Josh Collmenter: Short Reliever?

On March 2, 2016 By

The D-backs finished last season at 79-83, but actually outscored their opponents 720 to 713. With that positive run differential, we’d expect better record: something in the order of 81-81 or 82-80. The D-backs played better than their record would indicate, and that shortfall of 3 or 4 wins could just be luck. It could also be a matter of …

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What to Watch for in March: Impending Adjustments and Roster Clues

On February 29, 2016 By

Can you feel it in the air? March is a little more delayed than normal, but it’s practically here, and spring training is officially in full swing with exhibition games due to start tomorrow. A catch-as-catch-can roster was assembled a year ago at this time, but things are a little more focused this time around: there are no more roster …

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Double Plus: Weird Sauce Bench Candidates

On February 26, 2016 By

It’s possible that when a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is hashed out this year, we’ll see an increase in the size of the Active Roster — maybe to 28 players, and for good reason. For now, though, the 25-man limit is a very real obstacle. The additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller may go a long way toward …

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How Much of Greinke’s Sparkling 2015 Was Luck?

On February 24, 2016 By

Zack Greinke has a great track record — in each of the last eight seasons, he’s made at least 28 starts, pitching as an ace or close to it in every one. Last year, though, the results were astonishing. In 32 starts, he managed 222.2 innings, an average of just under 7 per start which was the third-highest rate of …

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If Things Go Wrong

On February 22, 2016 By

After a tour around the 70th percentile projections for D-backs players earlier this week and scaling them back to get them to the right playing time levels, we saw between 13 and 14 wins of “reasonably optimistic” room over and above the PECOTA-based projection of 78 wins this year from Baseball Prospectus. But what about the other direction? Is it …

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If Things Go Right: D-backs Position Players

On February 18, 2016 By

Yesterday, we tried looking to the recently-released PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus a different way: using them to come up with a “reasonably optimistic” best case scenario for the D-backs this season. The PECOTA projections we see are a “weighted mean” of a range of outcomes the system can foresee for particular players, with projections in 10 percentile increments, all …

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If Things Go Right: D-backs Pitchers

On February 17, 2016 By

We have a full magazine of projections, now, with Baseball Prospectus publishing their PECOTA numbers earlier this week. It’s a lot to look at all at once, and it’s far from gospel — the projections all seem to be strangely low on A.J. Pollock, for example. One of the great features of PECOTA, however, is that in addition to …

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Double Plus: On David Peralta, Yasmany Tomas Swapping Positions

On February 12, 2016 By

If you were ever relegated to right field in little league, you might not think of it as a premium skill position. Still, the number of left-handed hitters in the majors neutralizes the difference in fielded balls between right and left. Last year, right fielders made 9,416 plays for outs, and left fielders 8,644. That’s about 9% more plays, and …

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Contention Window Exit Strategies

On February 11, 2016 By

Not-breaking news: the D-backs have lined up a Contention Window by leaning into Paul Goldschmidt‘s prime and performance likely to remain above average from A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Patrick Corbin, among others. The Window probably has an expiration date, as the only players one could still consider prospects who remain in the fold might be Braden …

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Tyler Clippard Signing Means Higher 2016 Ceiling, Narrower Margin of Error

On February 8, 2016 By

Early this morning, Nick Piecoro wrote at AZCentral.com that the D-backs and bullpen righty Tyler Clippard were making progress on a contract. This afternoon, Clippard and the D-backs ironed out a two-year pact that will pay Clippard a total of $12.25M. The D-backs had long been looking for a bullpen addition, and to that extent, this deal shouldn’t be a …

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Double Plus: The Deferred Money Cycle Begins Again

On February 5, 2016 By

Depending on how you look at it, the D-backs will only pay substantially over the major league minimum for sixteen players in 2016. One of them is Bernard Gilkey — and his is not even the lowest figure. The way things stand, the D-backs payroll is not very top heavy, despite the large commitment to Zack Greinke; the second-highest …

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The Race for Fifth Starter May Already be Decided

On February 3, 2016 By

When the D-backs reported for spring training a year ago (yes, it really is February!), the roster had been partially blown up. For the rotation, there were at least twelve candidates — and only Josh Collmenter and Jeremy Hellickson had slots essentially locked up. They don’t have rotation slots locked up this year.

What a difference a year makes, right? …

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Cashing Out Chase Anderson, Literally

On February 1, 2016 By

After signing Zack Greinke and trading for Shelby Miller (albeit with Aaron Blair), the D-backs had more major league starters than they were likely to need; it made sense to move some of that depth for other kinds of talent more likely to help the team in the immediate future. With Nick Ahmed a staple of the ground ball …

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Double Plus: Strike Zone Adjustment a Coming Catastrophe?

On January 29, 2016 By

If you follow the D-backs and saw the news earlier this week that MLB is considering raising the bottom of the strike zone, you probably had the same initial thought that I did: that could hurt the D-backs more than any other team. If you’re a FanGraphs reader, you worked through the excellent August Fagerstrom’s excellent post identifying the pitchers …

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