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If Things Go Right: D-backs Position Players

On February 18, 2016 By

Yesterday, we tried looking to the recently-released PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus a different way: using them to come up with a “reasonably optimistic” best case scenario for the D-backs this season. The PECOTA projections we see are a “weighted mean” of a range of outcomes the system can foresee for particular players, with projections in 10 percentile increments, all …

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If Things Go Right: D-backs Pitchers

On February 17, 2016 By

We have a full magazine of projections, now, with Baseball Prospectus publishing their PECOTA numbers earlier this week. It’s a lot to look at all at once, and it’s far from gospel — the projections all seem to be strangely low on A.J. Pollock, for example. One of the great features of PECOTA, however, is that in addition to …

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Projections Still Don’t Like A.J. Pollock, and That’s Okay

On February 16, 2016 By

A year ago, I got it. I understood the reasons to slow-play A.J. Pollock. Now I don’t. Or, maybe I do. Let’s see…

Pollock had come up in 2013 and was kind of decent. Make no mistake, he didn’t light the world on fire with his .269/.332/.409 line but it was his first full season in the majors and …

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Introducing the New Shelby Miller

On February 15, 2016 By

Baseball is a game of adjustments. We often attribute this adage to hitters but it applies to pitchers, too. Get too reliant on one pitch and hitters will sit on it. Can’t locate your fastball? Batters will take until they see a fat one. Can’t locate your secondaries? Batters will let them pass and sit dead-red on fastballs. Any type …

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D-backs Relief Pitcher Arsenal Scores

On February 10, 2016 By

On Tuesday I previewed arsenal scores, a metric created by Eno Sarris at RotoGraphs. The idea is simple: evaluate each pitcher’s pitches based on swinging strikes (good) and ground balls (also good). Sarris was kind enough to share his data with Inside the ‘Zona I’ve used it already to showcase D-backs starting pitchers. Now it’s time to highlight the …

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D-backs Starting Pitcher Arsenal Scores

On February 9, 2016 By

Analytics allow you do some really fun things. You can slice and dice numbers to create new ways of evaluating players that, frankly, weren’t possible just five years ago. One such metric, and one that I’m a big fan of, is the arsenal score. Eno Sarris has been rolling these out over at RotoGraphs for a few seasons now (his …

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Tyler Clippard Signing Means Higher 2016 Ceiling, Narrower Margin of Error

On February 8, 2016 By

Early this morning, Nick Piecoro wrote at AZCentral.com that the D-backs and bullpen righty Tyler Clippard were making progress on a contract. This afternoon, Clippard and the D-backs ironed out a two-year pact that will pay Clippard a total of $12.25M. The D-backs had long been looking for a bullpen addition, and to that extent, this deal shouldn’t be a …

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What Does a Top of the Order Hitter Look Like?

On February 4, 2016 By

Right off the bat, I should say that this post was clearly spurned by the recent trade that sent five players packing bags and heading to either Arizona or Milwaukee. I’ve never been to Milwaukee, but I get the feeling that I’d rather head to Arizona than Wisconsin in general. Besides, they sell cheese and bad beer everywhere these days. …

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Fastballs and Changeups and Diamondbacks

On January 26, 2016 By

Strikeouts were a problem for the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff in 2015. As a collective group of pitchers, they were 19th in the majors in strikeout rate. The starters were 18th and the relief corps ranked 24th. It was a bottom-third result when you put it all together in terms of strikeouts. We like strikeouts, but as you’ve hopefully noticed here, …

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The Same Old Beef

On January 19, 2016 By

Before Welington “Beef” Castillo came along, the Diamondbacks’ catching situation was laughably bad. It inspired a number of articles that all came to the same general conclusion: they aren’t actually going to run that out there all season are they? They were, and then the Mariners did a dumb thing (as they are seemingly prone to doing) and took Mark …

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The D-backs Are Better Than This, Right?

On January 13, 2016 By

It’s funny how the outlook for the Arizona Diamondbacks largely depends on who you hear it from. By that I mean, the team clearly loves what they’ve done this winter. They should, they have some productive, shiny, new toys. The general baseball media has the team entrenched as a contender, but perhaps as one that’s still considered just a little …

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Will the Ends Justify the Means?

On January 12, 2016 By

It’s expensive to own a major league baseball team. If I win Powerball, I’ll probably buy a team and move them to Portland, Oregon and call ’em The Jeffs (but after taxes, shoot, I probably still can’t do it – I’ll start a GoFundMe page for the rest). To own a team, you really need to understand business because the …

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Remembering Not to Forget Evan Marshall

On January 11, 2016 By

Few bright spots in the D-backs’ last-place 2014 season were brighter than Evan Marshall. Called up to pitch in his first game on May 6, 2015, Marshall left a path of destruction in his wake, pitching to a 2.74 ERA in 49.1 innings. His outstanding results looked completely earned; that ERA was backed by a 2.89 FIP, and while …

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Double Plus: Goldschmidt vs. HOF First Basemen

On January 8, 2016 By

Yesterday I wrote a lot about Paul Goldschmidt as a possible Hall of Fame candidate. If you didn’t read the full installment, I’d suggest going back and taking a gander. Today things won’t be so long and exhaustive. Let’s keep it short because that’s what Double Plus Fridays are all about anyways (at least in theory).

I decided to …

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Why the 2015 Sinker Experiments Didn’t Work: Understanding Platoon Splits of More Kinds of Fastballs

On December 31, 2015 By

Its not that often that I feel like the scales have fallen from my baseball eyes, but it just happened, and I’m excited to share why. It’s not that this one thing Explains All Baseball, but the effect seems to be enormous: whether or not a pitch has a platoon split has much to do with how vertical the movement …

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Can the D-backs Exploit Batted Ball Matchups in 2016?

On December 29, 2015 By

Last seasons, Chip Hale earned a gold star for his work mixing and matching players in the outfield. With five players initially, then four players for the three spots, he allocated the time about as perfectly as possible. Down the stretch, A.J. Pollock played roughly 95% of the time, David Peralta played about 85% of the time, Ender Inciarte played …

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